Tag: retirement savings

A Reverse Mortgage for Retirement Planning

A Reverse Mortgage for Retirement Planning

A reverse mortgage can be a valuable financial management tool for seniors and their families.  However, if misunderstood or misused, borrowers and their heirs can encounter any one of a number of different challenges. In this post, I’ll define “reverse mortgage” and provide illustrations of 

Don’t Make these Financial Mistakes

Don’t Make these Financial Mistakes

The world is going through a very difficult phase. Everywhere we are hearing that we need to get adjusted to the ‘new normal’. Nothing is normal as it used to be. Children are not able to go to schools.   Most people are working from home.  

Selecting Stocks with a Score

Selecting Stocks with a Score

A friend of mine really likes selecting stocks with a score, the Piotroski score in particular.  Briefly, Professor Piotroski created a set of nine financial ratios that contribute to the score. If a company meets a certain criterion and has favorable results on 8 or 9 of the ratios, his analysis indicates that the company’s stock is likely to do well. My friend is primarily a value investor. The appeal of the Piotroski score to him is that it focuses on value stocks and, while it relies heavily on statistical analysis, it isn’t a black box.

In this post, I’ll identify the group of stocks to which the Piotroski score applies. I’ll then briefly explain the financial ratios that determine the score. I’ll close with a specific example of a stock I bought solely using the Piotroski score and provide some general guidance on applying the results of the score.

Book-to-Market Ratio

What is It?

The book-to-market (BM) ratio is a financial ratio. The numerator is the book value of the company. This value is shown on the balance sheet in the company’s financial statements and is usually reported as “Shareholders’ Equity.”

The denominator of the ratio is the total market value of the company on the evaluation date as the financial statements. The total market value is the stock price multiplied by the number of shares outstanding and is also called the market capitalization.

In mathematical terms,

BM Ratio = Book Value divided by Market Capitalization

Piotroski waits for the financial statements to be published for a particular year end to get the book value. He then looks up the market capitalization on the evaluation date of the financial statements for use in the ratio.

Piotroski’s Criterion

In his paper, Piotroski identifies value stocks as companies that have BM Ratios in the highest quintile (highest 20%) of traded stocks. These stocks have high book values relative to their market capitalization. Looked at from the other perspective, these stocks have low market capitalizations (and therefore low stock prices) relative to their book value.

Recall that the book value is the company’s assets minus its liabilities. In theory, if the company were liquidated on the evaluation date of the financials, shareholders would get their portion of the Shareholders’ Equity, based on the proportion of shares owned. Therefore, a BM ratio of 1.00 means that the market capitalization of the stock is equal to the Shareholders’ Equity.

By comparison, the cut-off for the highest quintile of BM ratios[1] across all stocks reported in the ValueLine Analyzer Plus on May 29, 2020 is 1.47. The book values per share of these companies are almost 50% higher than their stock prices!   You can see why Piotroski might consider these stocks to be potentially good values at their current prices.

Why Might It Be High?

There are at least two reasons that the BM ratio might be high.

First, the market may perceive that either assets are overvalued or liabilities are undervalued. Both of these situations would cause the reported book value to be higher than its true amount.

For example, some companies have not fully funded their pension plans. That means that the estimated present value of the future pension benefits is more than the liability on the balance sheet. Companies disclose these differences in the Notes to Financial Statements. If the liability for pension benefits is understated, it will cause the company’s book value to be overstated.

Second, financial theory tells us that the market value of a company’s stock is equal to its book value plus the present value of future profits. If the market perceives that the company is unlikely to make money in the future, the market capitalization will be less than the book value.

The Piotroski score focuses on companies in the second category. That is, it attempts to identify companies that will be profitable in the future from among all of the companies that the market thinks will have negative future profits.

Piotroski Score

The Piotroski score is calculated as the sum of a set of 9 values of 1 or 0. There are 9 criteria in the calculation, in addition to the BM ratio being in the highest quintile. The process assigns a 1 if a company’s financial statement values meet each criterion and a 0 if it does not. As such, companies that meet 8 or 9 of the criteria are considered more likely to have above market average performance.

The 9 criteria are listed below:

  1. Return on assets (ROA) = Net income / Total assets at beginning of year > 0
  2. ROA this year > ROA last year
  3. Cash flow from operations > 0
  4. Cash flow from operations > net income
  5. Long-term debt / Total assets this year < Long-term debt / Total assets last year
  6. Current ratio this year > current ratio last year
  7. Shares outstanding this year <= shares outstanding last year
  8. Gross margin this year > gross margin last year
  9. Total sales / Total assets this year > Total sales / Total assets last year

Piotroski performed his analysis using data from companies’ financial statements from 1976 to 1996. The average of the one-year returns for the companies with scores of 8 or 9 was 7.5 percentage points higher than the average for all companies with high BM ratios and 13.5 percentage points higher than the average for the market as a whole.

How to Calculate It

If you are familiar with reading financial statements, you can calculate the Piotroski score yourself using the formulas above. Or, you could extract the key ratios from a source, such as ValueLine, Tiingo or Bloomberg, all three of which require subscriptions. I use the latter approach as I have a subscription to ValueLine that I use for a variety of purposes.

An easier option is to use a Piotroski calculator or screener.   I’ve never used any of these tools, but I used Google to find a couple free options you might try.

  • Old School Value – This Excel spreadsheet will calculate and show you how a company does on each of the 9 tests and the total score.
  • ChartMill – This screener lets you identify stocks based on their Piotroski score. As such, it helps you find stocks with scores of 8 or 9, but does not show you the details of the underlying calculation.

I suggest being careful to check the documentation of any of these tools to make sure that the descriptions of the 9 tests are the same as I’ve included above (which I took directly from Piotroski’s paper). In poking around on-line, I found more than one site that did not correctly specify the nine tests.

My Experience Selecting Stocks with a Score

Although I’ve looked at stocks using the Piotroski score several times, I’ve made only one purchase using it as my primary buying criterion. I purchased FUJIFILMS (FUJIY) in March 2012. At the time, FUJIY had a BM Ratio of about 1.40, as compared to a market average BM ratio of about 0.5. It had a Piotroski score of 8, having failed the test for an increase in gross margin.

For many, many years, FUJIY’s biggest product was film for cameras. With the advent of the digital camera, its market shrank rapidly. In the year before I purchased the stock, its price decreased by 32%. As I was looking at the company, it was transitioning its business from camera film to other types of related products, including medical imaging and, more recently, office products with its purchase of Xerox. With a good story and a high Piotroski score, I decided to buy the stock.

It turns out I was a little early in buying the stock. In the 12 months after I bought the stock, it decreased by 19% while the S&P 500 increased by 13%. However, if I had bought it a year later, my total return would have been much better over both the short and long term, as shown in the table below.

Total Return starting in March 2013
1 Year2 YearsUntil June 2020
FUJIFILMS+51%+84%+171%
S&P 500+22%+36%+110%

 

So, even though my returns were lower than the market average because I bought the stock too early in the company’s turnaround, I correctly decided to keep it after its first year of poor performance. That is, if I had sold the stock one year after I purchased it and bought an S&P 500 index fund, I would have been worse off.

Caution

As with any investing strategy, it is important that you understand the assumptions underlying the Piotroski score. I also recommend that you understand the story behind the company you are considering for investment, as described in my post on buying stocks based on their financial fundamentals. There are companies that may have a Piotroski score of 8 or 9 that don’t have a good turn-around story, such as the one I described for FUJIY. In those cases, you may not want to rely solely on the Piotroski score.

 

[1] Calculated in this case as Book Value Per Share at most recent fiscal year end divided by Price on May 29, 2020, so not exactly equal to the ratio as calculated by Piotroski.

A Man is Not a (Sound Financial) Plan

A Man is Not a (Sound Financial) Plan

“A Man is Not a Plan!” It sounds like a very dated statement, but a guide on a recent trip I took told me about a conversation he had with one of his nieces about her finances.  They were talking about how she could improve 

Don’t Panic!  Just Plan It.

Don’t Panic! Just Plan It.

Financial markets have been more turbulent in the past few weeks than has been seen in many years, probably more volatile than has happened since many of you started being financially aware. You may be wondering what actions you should take. With the sense of 

The Canada Pension Plan And Your Retirement

The Canada Pension Plan And Your Retirement

Note from Susie Q:  When I published my post on Social Security, I promised my Canadian readers a similar post about the Canada Pension Plan.  It took a while, but here it is!  Graeme Hughes, the Money Geek, was kind enough to write it for me.

The Canada Pension Plan (CPP) is a foundational part of all Canadians’ retirement plans, as it represents, for many, the single largest government benefit they will receive during retirement. Over the years, opinions on the plan have varied widely, with many suggesting that younger Canadians shouldn’t count on receiving CPP benefits in retirement.

As it stands today, is this a realistic opinion, or is the reality something different? How does the CPP work, and can it be relied upon to deliver a meaningful amount of pension income to future retirees?

How The Canada Pension Plan Differs From Old Age Security

There are two core retirement benefits that the vast majority of Canadians are eligible to receive: the Canada Pension Plan and the Old Age Security (OAS) benefit.

OAS is a benefit that is funded from tax revenue. Both eligibility and the benefit amount paid are based on the number of years an individual has been resident in Canada prior to his or her 65th birthday. Benefits may be reduced for high-income seniors.

The CPP, on the other hand, is a true contributory pension plan. This means that benefits are available only to those who have contributed, and the amount you receive is directly linked to the amount paid into the plan over your working life. CPP contributions are held separate and apart from other government revenue, and CPP benefits are not income-tested.

A Brief History of The Canada Pension Plan

The CPP has had more than 50 years of success in providing pension benefits to Canadian seniors. But a lot has changed along the way:

  • The CPP started in 1966 as a pay-as-you-go plan. In short, it was expected that contributions from workers each year would fully cover the benefits paid to retirees in the same year. The contribution rate for the first couple of decades was just 3.6% of a worker’s pay, which is a very modest amount, indeed.
  • In the mid-1980’s, it started to become clear to the federal government that this model would not be sustainable in the face of a large wave of baby boomers that would be retiring in future years, so changes had to be made. These involved increases to the contribution amounts, reductions in some benefits, as well as changes to the management of the plan itself.
  • These changes culminated in 1997 with the formation of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), an entity at arm’s-length from the government that would be entirely responsible for investing CPP assets and funding the distribution of CPP benefits going forward. This effectively removed the government from the management of the pension plan, and the new board was given one overriding mandate above all – to maximize the returns on invested assets while managing risk.
  • As of September 30, 2019, the CPPIB had $409.5 billion in assets under management.

Is the Canada Pension Plan Sustainable?

Many pension plans, both public and private, have been struggling with sustainability over the last many years given demographic changes (the retiring boomers) combined with very low yields on fixed-income investments which often form the backbone of pension assets.

Fortunately, the CPPIB has an oversight regime that continues to account for such changes. Canada’s Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions appoints a Chief Actuary, who has as one of their responsibilities a review of the sustainability of the CPP. This review is conducted every three years.

The last reported review, in 2016, concluded that the CPP would be able to fully meet its commitments for at least the next 75 years (the length of time covered in the review), as long as a target rate of return of 4% in excess of inflation was maintained.

In the CPPIB’s 2019 annual report, it was able to boast an average annual return over the preceding 10 years of 11.1% (net nominal). Portfolio investments include public equities, private equity, real assets and fixed-income instruments. The portfolio has widespread geographic diversification, with only 15.5% of assets invested in Canada.

The chart below, from the 2019 annual report, highlights the sustainability of the plan as reflected in the historical and forecast growth in assets:

Actual and projected assets of the Canadian Pension Plan

Clearly, the CPP is in great shape to serve the needs of Canada’s current and future retirees. Even if this should change at some point in the future, the Chief Actuary has the authority to adjust contribution rates to maintain sustainability, should that be necessary at a later point in time.

How Are CPP Contributions Calculated?

CPP contributions are based on an individual’s income, and split equally between employer and employee. Contributions are calculated on the amount of annual income earned that is between $3,500 (the lower cutoff) and $57,400 (the 2019 upper cutoff). Up until 2019, the contribution rate on these amounts had been 9.9%, but a new CPP enhancement that started in 2019 raised that to 10.2%.

As an example, an individual who earned $50,000 in 2019 would have a total CPP contribution of $4,743.00 ($50,000 – $3,500 = $46,500 x 10.2%). Half this amount would be paid by the employee and half by their employer. Of course, self-employed individuals are responsible for the full amount.

It’s important to note that, while the lower cutoff amount is fixed, the upper cutoff is adjusted each January to reflect changes in average Canadian wages. Remember too, that the contribution rate of 9.9% had been in place until last year, with the CPP “enhancement” starting in 2019. The impact of the enhancement will be looked at later in this article.

What Benefits Can I Expect from the CPP?

The “base” calculation for CPP benefits assumes an individual applies for benefits at the normal retirement age of 65. In 2019, the maximum benefit for new retirees under this base scenario is a CPP payment of $1,154.58 per month. All CPP benefits are adjusted each January to account for changes in the Consumer Price Index.

However, most Canadians do not receive that maximum benefit. The amount you actually receive is based on the contributions made to the plan from the age of 18 until the date you apply for CPP benefits. If your total contributions during those years averaged, say, 70% of the maximum contributions permitted, your CPP benefit at age 65 would be approximately 70% of the maximum amount payable.

In short, the higher your working wage, the more you will have paid into the plan, and the more you will receive in benefits, up to the applicable maximums.

There are also a variety of adjustments made to the calculation of your CPP entitlement. For instance, you are allowed to drop your 8 lowest-earning years from the calculation. There are also adjustments for years spent rearing children under the age of 7, for periods of disability and for other circumstances. For these reasons, calculating your potential future benefit at any point in time is virtually impossible to do on your own. Fortunately, the good folks at Service Canada are happy to do the work for you, and an estimate of your individual benefit can be obtained by phone, or online through your My Service Canada Account.

As of October 2019, the average CPP benefit Canadians were receiving amounted to just $672.87, or about 58% of the maximum.

Lastly, CPP benefits paid are fully taxable as regular income.

When Should I Apply for the Pension?

Although the “base” calculation for CPP benefits assumes retirement at age 65, in reality, you have the option of applying for benefits anytime between the ages of 60 and 70. However, the amount of benefit you receive will be adjusted accordingly:

  • If you decide to take your pension early, your pension will be reduced by 0.6% for every month prior to your 65th birthday that benefits begin. So, if you decide to start payments as early as possible, on your 60th birthday, you will receive a 36% total reduction in your entitlement (0.6% x 60 months).
  • Conversely, if you decide to delay the start of benefits, you will receive an extra 0.7% for every month after your 65th birthday that you delay taking benefits. So, delaying benefits all the way to your 70th birthday increases your monthly amount by 42% (0.7% x 60 months).

The chart below outlines the change in monthly benefit given the age at which benefits commence, assuming an individual was eligible for $1,000 per month at age 65:

Canadian Pension Plan benefits by age

As seen above, the difference between taking your Canada Pension at age 70 versus age 60 is significant. You’ll receive over double the monthly amount. But the decision as to when to apply depends on a number of factors.

A big factor is, of course, your views on life expectancy. If you enter your early 60’s in poor health, or with a family history of shorter life expectancy, you may want to take the CPP as soon as you are eligible. If the opposite is true, you may want to wait until age 70 to ensure you receive the maximum amount of this inflation-adjusted and government-guaranteed benefit, to protect against the risk of running short of savings and income later in life.

Of course, the amount and structure of your own savings, the amount and source of other retirement income, along with your actual date of retirement, will all weigh on your decision. If in doubt, consult a qualified financial planner to assess the merits of different options.

2019 Changes – The Canada Pension Plan Enhancement

Up until 2019, the CPP was designed to replace about ¼ of a person’s average employment earnings once they retire. The current government has decided that should be enhanced such that the CPP will eventually cover about ⅓ of pre-retirement earnings.

To accomplish this, and to ensure that the newly enhanced benefits are self-funding, the CPP enhancement is being operated almost like an add-on benefit to the existing CPP.  CPP contributions for employers and employees are being increased above the previous 9.9% rate, over time, as follows:

CPP Tax Rates

In addition to the increased premiums noted above, the maximum annual earnings for CPP contributions will have an additional, “second ceiling” amount that will allow higher-income earners to contribute proportionately more to the CPP, starting in 2024.

The extent to which this CPP enhancement will increase your retirement benefits is dependent entirely on how much you individually contribute to the enhanced portion prior to retirement, both as regards the increased premium amount, as well as within the elevated earnings cap. However, those who end up contributing to the enhanced amount for a full 40 years could see their CPP benefits increase up to 50%.

Of course, if you are retiring in the next few years, you won’t have enough credit toward the enhanced amounts to make much of a difference to your benefits. These changes are really designed to have the most impact on younger workers who are in the earlier stages of their careers. Given the added complexity this new benefit adds to benefit calculations, it makes more sense than ever to keep track of your entitlement by obtaining occasional estimates from Service Canada.

More information on the CPP enhancement can be found here.

CPP And Your Financial Planning

In this article we have looked exclusively at the CPP as it pertains to retirement benefits. In addition, there are survivor, disability, and other benefits to consider as part of a well-rounded approach to managing personal finances. More comprehensive information on the Canada Pension Plan can be found on the pension benefits section of the Government of Canada’s website.

Remember that a good retirement plan is holistic and accounts for all sources of income, whether from government pension and benefits, employer-sponsored plans, personal savings or business ventures. Ideally, the information above will help with your planning and give you confidence that the CPP will indeed be there for you, regardless of your retirement date.

Annual Retirement Savings Targets

Annual Retirement Savings Targets

Once you know how much you want to save for retirement, you need a plan for building that savings.  Your annual retirement savings target depends on your total savings target, how many years you have until you want to retire and how much riskThe possibility 

Savings Framework and Emergency Savings

Savings Framework and Emergency Savings

You may be thinking you’d like to get started with investing.  Before doing that, you’ll want to look at how much savings you have and how much you can invest.  In this three-part post, I’ll illustrate a framework to guide savings and investing decisions, key